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Post by Lira on Nov 5, 2020 4:51:45 GMT
We have two months before Flash breathes its last breath. That means Stinkoman 20X6 level 10 has to come out in the next two months, right?? When do you think it will be? Place a bet and collect imaginary cash if you're right!
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Post by Gfdgsgxgzgdrc on Nov 5, 2020 23:47:31 GMT
Statistically, each day that passes without level 10, the chances of it releasing the next day grow more and more likely. (For example, if there's only a week before Flash dies and level 10 still isn't out, chances are it'll release sometime that week. If there's only one day left, it's practically guaranteed to come out that day.) They originally said it would be released in 2018, then 2019, then summer 2020, so the level is already multiple times overdue. Based on this, today is the most likely day for the level to release. And if it doesn't come out today, tomorrow will be even more likely. And so on, repeat ad level 10-itum (sorry, worst portmanteau I've ever made). By this logic, November is the most likely month, simply because it's the current one. Inversely, however, one could argue that each day that passes without level 10, the chances of it releasing the next day grow less likely. (For example, if there's only a week before Flash dies and level 10 still isn't out, one might deduce that it won't release this year at all.) By this logic, December (or further) is more likely. So there are optimistic and pessimistic ways of looking at it. On one hand, the level has to come out before Flash dies, so it has to come extremely soon, right? But on the other hand, the level hasn't come out yet and has been delayed so many times, who's to say it'll be released at all? It's like the Halloween teaser paradox from a couple weeks ago. "It didn't come out today, so that means it's definitely coming tomorrow. Either that, or we're not getting one at all." Each day, both of these outcomes became more probable, despite being opposites. Looking at my own procrastination habits, I find that a strict deadline can be the best motivator. When I want to release something before Halloween, for instance, I might forget to work on it for most of the year. Then, as Halloween draws closer, I work on it more and more, until I finally end up releasing it on the last possible day. I suspect the same might be true for the Chaps. They expected to finish it in 2018, but there's still two more years before Flash dies, so what's the rush? Let's release it in 2019 instead, and people will still get to play it for a year. Oh, it's 2020 now, but there are still a few months left, we can work on other things in the meantime. So I expect that December will finally be when they realize "Whoa, Flash dies in a month? We'd better finish this thing." Specifically, I'm going to say December 22nd. There's no logical reason why I chose that date specifically, it's just fun to predict things and see if I'm right. I feel like this level could be released in lieu of a Decemberween toon, à la Homestar Runner Goes For the Gold. (Another piece of evidence supporting a December release: in May, Matt said it'd be out by the end of the summer. In August, however, he said people can play it "as long as we finish it before December 31st". This sudden change tells me that releasing it on time has now become a legitimate concern, and it'll probably be releasing close to the end times.) Edit: Because of the teaser that was just posted, it's probably coming pretty imminently. I'm changing my vote to November. While I calculate the Fan Costumes will be released sometime around the 16th, I can't tell if the level will be released before or after the 'Stumes, or even at the same time (which there is some precedent for), so that makes it a bit hard to predict the exact date (not that there'd be much logical reasoning behind it anyway, but still).
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